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Thursday, January 17, 2008

FED YOU!

I may not agree with everything Cramer says but whenever he yells "the Fed knows nothing!" I nod in agreement. Look at this mess we're in right now...the United States' economy is in the shits right now. It's obvious that inflation isn't as high as we all thought it'll be...so come on Bernanke, step up and do something! My initial intention was to vent about Bernanke but I'll let this video do that for me. So let us talk about Apple a bit...I got hurt on Macworld day? Ouch, eh? Like I said from the beginning "2008 might be the year of exceptions" and "being long in todays market CAN hurt you"...this reminder woke me up as I forced myself to take a $363.90 loss. To me, Steve Jobs' announcement of a superthin MacBook Air laptop computer was good news. The markets are so messed up now that people take this news as bad news...come on, there's nothing wrong with this company, they sold 4 million iphones thus far and this laptop is still better than just about anything being introduced by any other company in the electronics world.

Now on to the market. Indexes are showing a bullish pattern right now. Ha, nothing has changed, I'm still waiting for a bounce. Using candle stick technical analysis, you can see that pattern developing. You must remember that the best rallies to the upside happen in a bear market, but these rallies don't last long, so be careful, remember, our economy is still in the shits as I speak.

Now my cousin asked me this earlier today, hope he doesn't mind me sharing...anyways he wrote: "I see you bought American Apparel. Is that a bargain, you think?"

YES! Let me explain, but first you must keep in mind that I am a bit biased on American Apparel because I've fallen in love with this stock overtime (never do that lol). Anyways, here are some notes I wrote down about this company back in December: Endeavor Acquisition (EDA) merged with American Apparel (APP) on the 13th of Dec. This was when the stock shot up, now APP should earn around 450M in revenues in 2008 and trade at 2X EV/sales. Once APP reports their 1st quarter as the new company in mid-Feb I see a dramatical revaluing of its stock price. In Q2 they made 95M in sales, in Q3 they made 106.5M. Now analysts are projecting 110M in Q4. But wait, weren't they able to already increase sales 11.5M from Q2 to Q3? Q4 is X-mas holidays where sales typically rise 20%, I expect at least 125M in sales. Ok, but please remember that these were my thoughts back in 2007...we know now that consumer spending ended up lower than expected this year. This should have an affect on this stock, but I would believe that its already been priced in. As expected, people don't care much for this stock right now. But lets just put it like this...its the next Lululemon. People will start talking about APP and Cramer will start telling you to "BUY BUY BUY" and those who phone in during the lightning round asking about APP will hear his "HOUSE OF PLEASURRRRE" buzzer...so why not buy now? It's a great buying opportunity going into Feb.

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Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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