Sunday, March 2, 2008

SHORT-LIVED RALLY, ONLY A HEAD FAKE

I should've known better, in this volatile market anything can happen. I expected the S&P500 to creep up to the 1400 mark by the end of the week and this obviously did not happen. S&P's inability to break out to the 1400 trading range is a pretty big clue that the recent rally was merely a head fake. So this isn't exactly comforting news for me...I'm stuck in my long position of NYX. Getting stuck on the wrong side of the fence is a horrible feeling and something I've been trying to avoid this year. Holding this stock over the weekend was also another fatal mistake (I had some technical difficulties, I was trying to sell my shares on Friday, but my online brokerage just wouldn't follow through), it is pretty obvious now that the markets will gap down in the morning come Monday. The only relief I could possibly get is if Bernanke decides to cut rates on Monday...highly unlikely, but still a possibility.

Let me explain what may have happened last week and where we are heading this month. The US dollar dropped in value earlier last week, this causes US investors to have to pay more for stocks with their more and more worthless US dollars. This also boosts foreign investors' buying power and results in a higher market. So that along with "good news" last week brought the markets higher, but if last week was in fact a head fake then this market is going to head lower...much lower for the rest of this month.
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UPDATE
I sold NYX at 10:30am on Monday and bought QID shortly after. It's no time to be bullish right now...we could see another January bloodbath this month.

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Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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